Silver is predicting that the Republicans chances of taking back the House next years are 50/50. Unfortunately, the winds are a-blowing in this country, and the pendulum is a-swingin. Republicans are gonna come out in droves this fall, and Democrats seem to have lost their motivation. We may not get as long on the top as the Republicans did and we need to hunker down now and play defense to keep our seats - and keep the State Senate.
I know we were hoping that the most important seats this year were 3 and 26. But they're not. We could run Jesus Christ himself and he'd probably lose them both. We have at least 7 seats at risk this year:
13: McCain 51-Obama 49 Bush 55-Kerry 45
19: Obama 51-McCain 48 Bush 54-Kerry 45
20: Obama 51-McCain 48 Bush 54-Kerry 46
23: Obama 52-McCain 47 Bush 51-Kerry 47
24: Obama 50-McCain 48 Bush 53-Kerry-47
25: Obama 56-McCain 43 Kerry 50-Bush 48
29: McCain 50-Obama 48 Bush 56-Kerry 42
Now normally, this early in the year, I'd think that the Democrats have a chance to adjust some public priorities, reset the agenda, and change the underlying dynamics of the year. However, our uninspiring Governor, inept Senate Majority Leader (he's gonna lose his own seat), and wildly unpopular Speaker of the House don't seem to be willing to try, so its up to us and our candidates.
If I were Weiner, McCarthy, Bishop, or Higgins, I'd be shoring up as much cash as possible. But the 7 I listed above need to be doing more than that: cash is king, but Get-Out-The-Vote will be what determines whether we finish the year with a 25 seat majority or a 11 seat majority.
I'm worried that no one is thinking about this, and terrified that no one is taking this seriously. If we bury our heads in the sand and try not to think about this, we're no better than that woman in Massachusetts. Two years ago this site was buzzing daily with how to pickup five seats, we won four. Today, we need to hunker down and set our sights on saving these seven seats, and hope we can save at least six. Unless you want to see the Republicans start to have their way again.
The 23rd wasn't include for obvious reasons. That race can serve as its own post, since three candidates are vying for it and there is no incumbent.
One of the things that stuck out to me was the great quarter Eric Massa had. His district - NY-29 - is a rural district that isn't really a wealthy district. So when he can bring in over $289,000 in a quarter where most upstate representatives only brought in half of that amount, it shows that he is a strong incumbent. The Republicans are gunning for him, but he's tough.
Dan Maffei had a very strong quarter - the best of any upstate representative and fourth-best of any member of Congress in the state.
If there is one thing you can say about Rangel, he is a great fundraiser. He was second to Steve Israel in this quarter, but not by much. His expenditures were high, but he still has a lot of money in the bank (not that he needs to worry about that).
For the most part, these are solid and typical numbers. As a resident of NY-26, it is interesting to see Lee's numbers. I wouldn't read too much into his mediocre quarter, but the list of donors who have contributed to his campaign makes for a "Best of Wall Street"-type list.
This is really funny stuff and I think Maffei was a great sport for playing along. He appeared on the Colbert Report last night as part of Colbert's "Better Know A District" series. It's inspired.
This is hilarious, if not completely pathetic. It seems that the NRCC, because they have nothing better to do and things are going so swimmingly for them, has decided to attack 18 freshman Dems, including Dan Maffei and Eric Massa, for, uh, not being Blue Dogs. No, really.
The National Republican Campaign Committee on Thursday went on the attack against 18 freshman Democrats who it said weren't fiscally conservative enough to earn stripes as "Blue Dog" Democrats.
The only problem was the Blue Dogs said those 18 didn't ask to be a part of the group, which is the most fiscally conservative coalition within the Democratic caucus.
That didn't stop the NRCC, which blasted press releases to the hometowns of 18 vulnerable freshman, targeting their votes in favor of the $787 billion economic stimulus bill and the $410 billion omnibus spending measure as running counter to their campaign claims to help restore fiscal responsibility to Washington.
...
"The new membership list of the Blue Dog Coalition for the 111th Congress was released, but self-proclaimed "fiscal conservative" Rep. Harry Teague's name was noticeably absent," a version of the release read. "Despite Teague's rhetoric that he would be a good steward of the taxpayers' dollars in Congress, did the Blue Dog Coalition see Teague's claims as nothing more than empty rhetoric?"
Democrats charged Republicans with trying to score a cheap political point.
"This is yet another fabricated press release sent out by the Republicans who are looking to attack fiscally responsible, commonsense Democrats in the House," said Blue Dog spokeswoman Kristen Hawn. "It is shameless political ploy that has no basis in truth."
File this under "O RLY?" It seems the sad-sack dreamers at the NRCC have already started to circulating their, ahem, rather ambitious "target" list for 2010. That list includes five New Yorkers, including all three freshmen.
It makes some sense to me that they'd think they might have a shot at taking back NY-29. It's a pretty red district. Massa is smart and tireless. They'll make a run at him, but they ain't gonna out-hustle the guy.
To take back NY-13, they'd have to, ya know, actually find a candidate, something that turned into quite a soap opera last summer for them. And I don't think they are going to have a realistic shot at Maffei, even as a frosh.
They damn near picked off Arcuri in NY-24 last year, but I don't think that they'll catch him napping again, not to mention D-trip.
Gillibrand has proven to be one hell of a fundraiser and has worked her tail off to seal the deal with her district. She isn't going to be beaten anytime soon. I'm also pretty sure that they won't be lucky enough to find another self funding gazillionaire moron to take her on. Running a credible challenge to Gillibrand is going to cost money. Will they have it? I have my doubts. Even if they do have the moolah, I find it hard to believe they'd dump it into NY-20.
What's interesting to me is who didn't make their list. It seems that the NRCC won't be taking another shot at John Hall in NY-19.
Sorry, Mr. Lalor.
Oh, and I have a feeling that much of their effort in New York just might be sunk into defending NY-3.
Now that we know who won and who lost this year, it's easier to take a whack at 2012 redistricting. Redistricting NYC I'll leave to the people who understand the Racial barriers, but suffice to say we'll keep control of all of the seats.
Context: NY stands to lose 2 seats this year, and by pure population, one will almost inevitably have to come from the Albany area, while the other will have to come from NYC. It is nearly impossible to draw a map without Albany losing the upstate seat, and truly impossible to draw a map where upstate loses 2 seats; there are just too many people upstate.
I took a whack at it; this map is crude: the district lines are not precise; the districts don't all have exactly 770,000 714,000 people in them (the new target number), and Buffalo, Syracuse, and Albany are all split in this map, it's kind of hard to tell. Also, I may have drawn congressmen outside of their seats, this was unintentional.
Most importantly, this map leaves Upstate with 1 Republican, as Chris Lee could not hold the seat I drew for him.
NY-13: McMahon takes Fossella's seat, D pickup
NY-20: Gillibrand reelected over Treadwell
NY-21: Tonko elected to safe D seat, replacing McNulty
NY-23: McHugh (R) reelected
NY-24: Arcuri in a contest
NY-25: Maffei elected to open Reynolds seat, D p/u
Also, Hinchey and Hall re-elected
NY-29: Called for ERIC MASSA by Chris Bowers of OpenLeft.com
Chris is a cautious analyst who doesn't count unhatched chickens.
Rochester, NY- On Wednesday, October 29th, 2008, United States Senator Hillary Clinton will appear at a Get Out The Vote Rally in support of Democratic candidates Rick Dollinger (NY State Senate 56), Alice Kryzan (NY-26), Dan Maffei (NY-25), and Eric Massa (NY-29). This event is free and open to the public, but space is limited so please arrive early. Press instructions below.
The folks at CQ Politics seem to finally be catching up to the fact that the race in NY-25 xis shaping up to be not much of a contest at all. Today they upgrade their rating of the race from "Leans Democratic" to "Democrat Favored":
The writing is on the wall for the race to succeed 10-term incumbent Walsh, and it's not good news for his Republican Party. Democratic nominee Dan Maffei - who in 2006 ended Walsh's long string of easy re-election wins by hold him to a margin of under 2 percentage points - essentially never stopped running, and has established an overwhelming fundraising lead over the Republican nominee, former Onondaga County Legislature Chairman Dale Sweetland.
Maffei reported raising $1.9 million and had $599,000 on hand through Sept. 30. That gave him a 4-to-1 cash advantage over Sweetland, who reported raising $334,000 and had $137,000 in hand by the end of the quarter.
Sweetland has a fair degree of name ID in Syracuse, the 25th District's biggest city and the population anchor in its eastern end, from his days there as county council chairman. And the district, though generally trending Democratic, is hardly a slam dunk for the party, as presidential challenger John Kerry edged Bush there in 2004 by just 2 points.
But Sweetland entered this race late as a second choice after the original candidate recruited by party officials dropped out in late March citing health concerns. Sweetland needed to post blockbuster fundraising totals in the third quarter of the year, which runs July through September, to have the resources necessary to launch a strong final campaign push for the seat, and he appears to have fallen short of that horizon.
The Democrats made the 25th District race an early and top priority for the election cycle, and the cash-strapped National Republican Congressional Committee can offer little help to Sweetland.
Over the last few weeks we've heard all manner of thoroughly ugly and completely baseless crap from Republicans across the country. We've heard that Congressional Dems as well as Barack Obama himself were potentially "anti-American" from first class wingnut Michelle Bachman. We've heard from wingnut Rep Robin Hayes that Democrats "Liberals hate America-people who work hard, achieve, love God. We've heard how much Sarah Palin likes to appear in the "Pro America" parts of the nation.
Now we get to see and hear "Shotgun" Randy Kuhl (R-Hair Club for Men) say on camera that he "firmly believes" that Democrats want the American People to suffer and to hurt." No, really. Here's the exact quote:
I firmly believe the Democratic majority wants the American public to suffer and to hurt so that they can make some political gains at election time, and I think that's wrong.
Excuse me, Randy? Did you really just say that? The tape doesn't lie, I guess.
I have just about enough of this crap from GOP dweebs nationwide, but this addition to their 2008 Hall of Shame is simply beyond the pale.
I understand that Randy is polling well behind progressive Eric Massa and that desperate times call for desperate measures and all, but this is ridiculous.
Randy Kuhl has long been an embarrassment to New York State as well as his own party. He's now crossed a line that he can't uncross.
They say that Walter Mondale was told in the waning weeks of the '84 campaign, when it was perfectly obvious that he was about to get crushed, that he should campaign the way he wanted his grandchildren to remember him.
I have to say that Randy's grandchildren may look back upon the fact that Randy once drunkenly pulled not one, but twoshotguns on their grandma as not exactly his lowest point.
It is going to be so nice to see Kuhl tossed out on his ass. Good riddance.
Wow. You can smell the desperation a mile away with this one. There is stretching the truth and then there's is just flat out making crap up. The NRCC's new ad in NY-29 is one busload of crap just dying for a fact check. The gist of this new ad is that challenger Eric Massa wants to raise taxes so that he can give free health care to scary brown people. Seriously. Check it out:
What's interesting about this claim, especially since I've never heard Massa say anything that could possibly be construed as advocating any such thing, is the citation provided in the ad. The ad makes a number of completely BS claims and provides citations for two of them. The first citation is from a questionnaire of some sort from the Progressive Democrats of Genesee Valley. The second, the one is supposed to piss people off the most, the bit about giving free health care to illegal immigrants, is much more interesting - and completely absurd.
Now, if the NRCC or the Kuhl campaign wants to produce quotes from Massa saying that he wants to give free health care to brown people from the OTH or the Toledo Blade, I suggest they do so. I'm pretty damn sure no such quotes exist. But, why on earth are they citing a bill in a Congress in which Massa does not serve? NY-29 is represented in the 100th Congress by one "Shotgun" Randy Kuhl (R-Hair Club for Men). Why is the NRCC attempting to tar Massa with a bill on which he could not vote for or against? Is it just to have some tiny type at the bottom of the screen when they make such a transparently BS claim?
Or are they simply, as someone recently described them, "poo-flinging howler monkeys" that are furiously flinging crap, true or not, in hopes that something sticks?
The good folks at the Working Families Party are launching a mail campaign in support of endorsed challengers Eric Massa and Dan Maffei. The campaign is also part of their effort to urge people to vote for progressive candidates, from the top of the ticket on down, on Row E, the WFP line and to "Vote Change Like You Mean It." It's a campaign you'll surely be hearing more about in the next two weeks.
On November 4th, New Yorkers have a chance to do more than just vote for change. By voting for Obama on the Working Families ballot line - "Row E" - they can send a powerful message for universal healthcare, an end to war in Iraq, and for an economy that works for all us. It's a way to "Vote Change Like You Mean It."
As Katrina Vanden Heuvel put it recently in The Nation:
Some of us support Obama with unalloyed enthusiasm, while others regard his victory as essential simply to avoid the catastrophe of another four years of Republican rule. But all of us know that the real work doesn't end with a new administration in Washington. It will be more urgent than ever to organize locally and build a clear alternative to the neoliberal consensus that has dominated both parties. By supporting Obama and the Congressional Democrats on the Working Families Party line, New Yorkers can begin that work now. We urge our New York readers, and other readers with friends in the state, to spread the word on the value of voting Working Families - Row E - once again this November.
It's a message with particular resonance in Western New York, a place where working families have been besieged for decades and a real battleground for a number of really hot races up and down the ticket. Voting for progressive candidates on Row E says to the pols that you had better be putting working people first.
If you needed further proof that Democrat Dan Maffei will be the next Congressman in NY-25, look no further than the most recent financial filings: Republican Dale Sweetland took in 140K in the second half of 3Q, giving him 137K cash on hand, while Maffei took in nearly 400K and has nearly 600K cash on hand.
So says Carrie James, a spokeswoman for the Democratic Campaign Congressional Committee, as quoted in a New York Times piece on politics in Western New York. The piece is worth a read, though nothing in it will surprise real political junkies.
I still haven't figured out a way to upload pdf in a way that I can link to here on the siteHere's the pdf and here's the summary from the press release:
In a new poll released today, Democrat Dan Maffei holds a 49% to 31% lead over Republican Dale Sweetland in the race for New York's 25th Congressional District. A poll summary memo is attached.
The poll, conducted by the national polling firm Kiley and Company on October 1-2, 2008, was commissioned by the Maffei for Congress Campaign.
No surprises here, folks. Maffei will coast to victory here.
Update: The usual caveats apply -- small sample size, partisan poll -- and I don't think Maffei is likely to win by 18 points. But I do believe Maffei will win by 7-13 points. Obama wins the district by around 8, let's say. Then throw in two for the Indie line and another three for advertising. Then take off 1 for Howie Hawkins and 2 for the fact that the registration figures are more favorable than the Cook PVI. That leaves you with a ten point lead. Then plus or minus three since I really have no idea what I'm talking about. And you've got 7-13 points.
As the 3Q fundraising numbers trickle in over the next week (they've all got to be in by October 15), here's a few things to keep an eye on:
1. NY-29: Will Kuhl come close to Massa's impressive total? It's hard to say, but Kuhl's performance in the first half of the quarter was lackluster. The way things are shaping up, Massa might -- and I stress might -- have a substantial financial advantage coming down the home stretch, especially if the DCCC chips in the 900K they talked about.
2. NY-25: Will Sweetland put in a another pathetic quarter? If so, he's toast and the DCCC should redeploy to NY-29 and possibly NY-26.
3. NY-26: This is the big wildcard. Kryzan just got serious about fundraising recently, so she might put up a strong number. Lee has his own money and possibly access to Rent-A-Kid Reynolds's old connections, so he might bring in a lot.
Update: Let's throw NY-13 into the mix. If Republican Straniere puts up another weak quarter, he's probably toast too. There's candidates on the Independence and Conservative lines as well, which spells trouble for any Republican in a tight race.
The News from NY-25 blog, which we don't link to nearly enough, has footage of a debate between Democrat Dan Maffei and Republican Dale Sweetland about the bailout plan.
It's worth watching for a number of reasons. One is that I think I may have taken a 4H class from Dale Sweetland in the early 80s. The other is how well Maffei does in these settings. And another is the nice job the moderator does. I don't want to sound like I'm totally in the tank for local media, but I'm often struck by what a better job local reporters and anchors do than their national counterparts.
In NY-20, the group endorsed Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand in her reelection bid. The 21st Century Democrats included a profile of Gillibrand on their website, providing readers with some information on Gillibrand.
Kirsten's campaign for New York's 20th District is based on returning trust and accountability to government and reclaiming the days when government worked hardest for those who need it most. Kirsten is an accomplished civic leader, attorney, wife, and mother who understands that politicians are supposed to be looking out for you and are supposed to represent all citizens - not just those who can afford the most access.
The 21st Century Democrats also backed two candidates: Dan Maffei and Jon Powers in NY-25 and NY-26, respectively. The group also has profiles for Maffei and Powers.
The group had this to say about backing Maffei:
21st Century Democrats is excited to support Dan Maffei as he runs to represent New York's 25th district and convinced that he will continue to continue to fight for communities in New York and throughout America.
They had this to say about Powers:
Once elected to Congress, Jon Powers will demonstrate the positive and principled leadership our country needs. 21st Century Democrats is confident that Captain Powers' ability to lead by example will inspire other America to do the same and move our country forward.
Based on what I see, these are the only endorsements for candidates/elected officials from New York. Hopefully there are more to come (Eric Massa anyone?).
