The new Siena Polls are hot off the presses an things look pretty good for Dems across the state. In fact, if these numbers are correct and the election wre held today, the GOP would lose it's Senate majority.
The biggest numbers to pop out is the lead Brian Foley has over Caesar Trunzo (R-FL) and the huge comeback by incumbent Dem Bill Stachowski. Foley leads Trunzo by a whopping 22 points and Stachowski has turned a 13 point deficit into a 4 point lead.
A rundown:
3rd SD - Suffolk County - Caesar Trunzo (R, incumbent) vs. Brian Foley (D)
Foley has a 56-34 percent lead over Trunzo. Trunzo led 46-40 percent in the previous Siena New York Poll. While Foley has picked up a little more support among Democrats, he has cut Trunzo's lead among Republican voters to 53-39 percent, down dramatically from 71-16 percent. Additionally, Foley has opened up a 63-27 percent lead among independent voters, up from 43-40 percent previously.
Foley has expanded a two-point lead in Brookhaven to a 12-point lead, and reversed 12-point deficit in Islip and turned it into 30-point lead. Where Trunzo had a nine-point lead among voters 55-years of age and older, Foley now leads with those voters 52-40 percent. Foley leads by 13 points with men and 30 points with women. The only demographic group in which Trunzo leads is among Republicans.
If Foley leads by even 10 points in Trunzo's Islip backyard, this thing is over. The poll shows a 30 point lead. And before the GOoPs start screaming about the poll sample, look at the Obama/McCain numbers. They are essentially dead even. It's not like they are only polling Dems.
6th SD - Nassau County - Kemp Hannon (R, incumbent) vs. Kristen McElroy (D)
Hannon has a commanding 56-30 percent lead, in a district that is virtually evenly enrolled between Republicans and Democrats. Hannon has the support of 80 percent of Republicans and picks up the support of nearly one-third of Democrats. McElroy only wins among Democrats 55-32 percent, while only attracting support from 10 percent of Republicans. Hannon leads among independent voters 56-21 percent.
McElroy leads among young voters and those in the Council District 1 section of the Hempstead portion of the Senate district. However, Hannon has much bigger leads in the remainder of the district and has better than 60 percent among voters who are at least 35-years old.
Ouch. Got some work to do here.
15th SD - Queens County - Serph Maltese (R, incumbent) vs. Joseph Addabbo, Jr. (D)
Addabbo currently has a slim 45-43 percent lead over Maltese. In the September Siena poll, the two were tied at 42 percent, in this district that has an overwhelmingly Democratic enrollment edge. Maltese has the support of more than three-quarters of Republicans and one-quarter of Democrats. Addabbo leads 61-27 percent among Democrats and picks up the support of 20 percent of Republicans. Maltese leads among independent voters 51-31 percent. Maltese leads by four points with men, while Addabbo has a seven-point lead with women. Addabbo leads in the southern part of the district and Maltese leads in the north.
Maltese is viewed favorably by 45 percent of voters and unfavorably by 33 percent of voters, down from a 48-16 percent favorable rating previously. Addabbo's favorable rating is 42-30 percent, and was previously 38-20 percent.
Obama leads McCain in this district 57-32 percent, up from 49-31 percent.
48th SD - Oswego/Jefferson/St. Lawrence - Darrel Aubertine (D, incumbent) vs. David Renzi (R)
Aubertine, who had a 51-31 percent lead over Renzi in the last poll, has seen that lead drop to 49-38 percent. Aubertine has the support of nearly three-quarters of Democrats and more than one-third of Republicans in this district with a heavy Republican enrollment edge. Renzi leads 57-35 percent with Republicans, up from 41-37 percent previously, and only gets 13 percent of Democrats. Aubertine is winning among independent voters 49-34 percent, up from 41-37 percent previously. While Renzi has erased a 20-point Aubertine lead in Oswego County, and now leads there 44-37 percent, Aubertine has widened his leads in Jefferson (25 points, up from 16) and St. Lawrence (30 points, up from 27) Counties.
Aubertine is viewed favorably by 54 percent of voters and unfavorably by 31 percent of voters, down from 58-21 percent previously. Renzi has a 40-35 percent favorability rating; previously it was 34-15 percent.
Aubertine is going to fine.
58th SD - Erie County - William Stachowski (D, incumbent) vs. Dennis Delano (R)
Stachowski now has a 47-43 percent lead over Delano, after trailing 49-36 percent in the previous Siena poll in this district where Democrats have a better than two-to-one enrollment edge. Stachowski has increased his lead among Democrats to 62-30 percent (up from 51-34 percent). Delano maintains a 63-25 percent lead among Republicans (virtually unchanged from 64-23 percent) and has seen his lead among independent voters fall to 54-36 percent, down from 67-19 percent.
Whereas Delano led in all three sections of the district previously, Stachowski now leads 47-37 percent in Buffalo/Lackawanna, 48-45 percent in Cheektowaga, and 47-44 percent in the southern suburbs. Stachowski has a 12-point lead with men, while Delano has a two-point lead with women. Delano has a significant lead with Protestants. Stachowski leads with Catholics, and has a big lead among younger voters.
Stachowski has a 50-31 percent favorable rating. It had been 39-14 percent. Delano's favorable rating, 53-33 percent, is down from 63-15 percent. Delano continues to have a positive favorable rating with voters of every party, while Stachowski has increased his favorability among Democrats but lost ground with independent voters and saw his favorability among Republicans drop from 35-12 percent to 29-50 percent.
More than half of voters would like to see the Senate controlled by Democrats, and Obama has opened 55-37 percent lead over McCain, up from 45-41 percent previously.
"Senator Stachowski has turned this race around. In four weeks he has erased a 13-point deficit and turned it into a tight four-point lead. Where Delano previously had a much better favorable rating with voters, the two are now viewed by voters in virtually the same light. We will have to wait until Election Day to see if Stachowski continues his momentum to win re-election, or if Delano can turn this race back around again and defeat a 27-year incumbent in this overwhelmingly Democratic district," Greenberg said.
Stach is back. That's what a comeback looks like. I guess the more folks learn about Delano, the less they like what they see. Also, this one of those races that an Obama wave could seriously affect. If that wave reaches Buffalo, Stachowski could end up blowing Delano right out of the water.
61st SD - Erie and Genesee Counties - Michael Ranzenhofer (R) vs. Joseph Mesi (D)
Ranzenhofer has a 47-42 percent lead over Mesi, who had a slimmer 40-38 percent lead in the previous Siena poll, in this district where Republicans have a very small enrollment edge over Democrats. Ranzenhofer leads among Republicans 69-25 percent, up from 59-21 percent. Mesi leads among Democrats 62-29 percent, closer than the previous 63-19 percent. Mesi leads among independent voters 42-37 percent, although Ranzenhofer closed the gap from 43-28 percent. Mesi leads in Tonawanda by seven points (down from 10). Ranzenhofer leads in the Clarence/Newstead/Genesee County portions of the district by 15 points (up from two points), and in Amherst by three points (up a tick from two points).
Ranzenhofer has a 47-26 percent favorable rating, compared to 35-12 percent previously. Mesi's favorable rating is 46-37 percent, compared to 45-18 percent in the previous Siena poll.
While the race has shifted seven points from Mesi to Ranzenhofer, a reverse trend occurred on the question of who voters support to control the Senate. Previously, voters supported Republican control by a 44-38 percent margin, while now a slim plurality, 43-41 percent, support Democratic control. The presidential race also flipped, with McCain's 45-40 percent lead now becoming a 51-42 percent lead for Obama.
"This district is close in enrollment between Republicans and Democrats. The voters are close in their view on which party should control the Senate. The voters have switched their support from McCain to Obama over the last few weeks. And a small Mesi lead has turned into a slightly wider Ranzenhofer lead. Which party's voters turn out in larger numbers on Tuesday may well determine the outcome of this race. Either way, it figures to be a late night as the votes get counted in this race," Greenberg said.
This one may very well come down to Obama's GOTV operation as well. If his voters show in force, I think Mesi wins this thing. Mesi likes to remind folks that he is undefeated. If the Obama wave does indeed materialize in the manner that it appears to be, he'll be able to call himself undefeated still. Give him a hand.
The Brown, Dierdorf & Renzi partner was incorrectly designated as a town employee, which made him eligible for the state benefit. But Mr. Renzi, who is running for the 48th district state Senate seat against Sen. Darrel J. Aubertine, D-Cape Vincent, does not meet the state criteria for being an employee for several reasons, including that he does not submit time sheets to the town, work fixed hours there, have a permanent work space at the town or report to anyone at the town during each work day.
Through Pamelia, Mr. Renzi accrued 300 days of service credit and $26,539 in salary credit in the state retirement system. The attorney has received no benefits because he has not retired.
Pamelia Supervisor Lawrence C. Longway said Mr. Renzi asked to be enrolled in the state benefits system when he was hired.
"He lagged a little bit to be totally vested, so he wanted some New York state retirement time," the supervisor recalled. "Whatever benefits he wanted, whether it was New York state retirement or health insurance, we did him whatever he wanted. But he paid for it all."
In the article, the paper states that they received the information from the DSCC, which led to Renzi claiming that a "whisper campaign" was started by Aubertine's campaign.
"I have always held myself to highest ethical standards," said Mr. Renzi in the statement. "My opponent wants to avoid having to answer legitimate questions that have been raised about his own unethical and illegal behavior, and misuse of taxpayer money while in office, and so has raised these issues as part of his increasingly negative campaign."
First off, there is nothing ethical about dipping into the state retirement system when you aren't allowed to. This isn't the first time we have seen this and it won't be the last. Secondly, Renzi is doing what he accuses Aubertine of doing. The newspaper raises questions about his own conduct and Renzi turns it on Aubertine, which is the same thing he alleges Aubertine is doing in the quote above.
It is rather comical how desperate the Republicans are this cycle. They know that they will be the minority come January 1 and they aren't looking forward to it at all.
Imagine this. The SRCC has dumped well over a half million dollars on your race, a race in a media market that ain't exactly hugely expensive, a race for a seat your party held for over a century until some other guy won it handily in a special election just a mere 7 months ago and you wake up today to find yourself still down by 20 points. What do you do?
That video was shot off a TV by the intrepid Danger Democrat up in the North Country, btw.
What to say? As I say above, I really don't think the Renzi camp has a lot of options right now. I find it hard to believe that Dean Skelos is going to continue to pump the big bucks into a race that looks all but over, though I'd really love to be wrong about that. Of the few options left, going hard negative is probably the most attractive. At a minimum, it's the best of some bad options. That said, I'm rather suspect of the method here (as is DD). Putting your smears in the mouths of children could very easily backfire with the voters of the 48th. I'm curious to know just how big the buy is.
But, then again, what else were they going to do? They've thrown a whole bunch of money at this race and it seems to have not had much effect at all. In true Upstate New York Republican fashion, it was time to hide behind the kids.
As if you needed any more proof this week that Republicans can't handle money, take a look at where Dean Skelos has been blowing his campaign committee's money so far this cycle. He's spent close to $1.3 million on Barbara Donno ($650K in SD-7) and David Renzi ($600K in SD-48). The result? Their candidates are being crushed by 20 points or more. It seems that Skelos just can't let the SD-7 race go, as he continues to pour money into a vendetta race against Craig Johnson. As for SD-48, I guess they just can't get over the fact that they lost a seat they'd held since the 19th century and must feel that they are owed it or something. Darrel Aubertine appears to have sealed the deal with the good people of the district and even $600K doesn't seem to have changed that perception all that much.
The point is that that money is gone. It's not coming back. Dean has dropped well over million bucks on two long shots and has gotten two blowouts in return.
Of course, this all pales in comparison to the nearly $1 million, give or take a cup of coffee or two, that Dean has dumped into defending Serph Maltese. That's a lot of money and it's only September. The result? A dead heat against 20 year incumbent. A million bucks and Maltese is still in real serious trouble.
With mad fiscal skillz like these, is it any wonder our state budget is in such a mess?
I think we now have a pretty good idea of how the last Republican State Senate Majority leader of our lifetimes, Dean Skelos, plans to try to hold on to his rather tenuous and doomed majority. Basically, they are planning to hopelessly play offense while they've got incumbents in real, genuine danger and, perhaps most importantly, they are going to run away from their own party and the dysfunction they've helped create over the last 70 years or so.
Take a look at the TV ads that Skelos' crew is funding for three of their challengers. There a number of common themes running through all three of them. First, never will you see one of these candidates identify themselves as a Republican, even though, despite their claims of "independence", the Republican Senate Committee now being run by Skelos is bankrolling these ads. Second, not only will they not identify themselves by party, they are all running against something they refer to as "Albany". I'm assuming this is the same Albany that their party has had a major hand in running into the ground all these years. That's right, these seemingly party-less challengers are all running for the state Senate in order to clean up the very dysfunction that their party, the ones funding the ads, largely helped create and, especially in the case of the GOP controlled Senate, have robustly defended. They do so while claiming to be "independent" leaders called to the fight against a corrupt and out of touch Albany. That's rich.
She's "not a typical politician" who is running because "Albany isn't listening." OK. It should be mentioned that her chances of actually defeating Craig Johnson are slim at best. In reality, this campaign is not much more than a personal vendetta for Skelos and Joe Mondello, both of whom simply haven't gotten over the fact that they lost this seat last year.
Here's an ad by Liz Feld who is running a rather quixotic campaign against Suzi Oppenheimer. You'll see a few of the same themes and notice many of the same omissions:
It should also be noted that Liz Feld's run is just as puzzling as Donno's. She simply isn't going to beat Oppenheimer. It won't even be close, no matter how much money Skelos may choose to dump into it which, given that this race isn't on Long Island, will probably not be anywhere near as much as Donno's.
Finally, check out this ad from SD-48 challenger Dave Renzi. Once again, you'll see the candidate in their home, no mention of party ID and a distinct anti-Albany bent. This one is special though, as it actually mentions the word "dysfunction" and even calls for this year's buzzword, a word Republicans the nation are over are trying desperately to find a way to co-opt, "change." Because, ya know, nothing says "change" in Albany like maintaining the status quo of the GOP Senate majority...
So, there ya go. How does Skelos hope to hang on to his doomed Senate GOP majority? By running away from the fact that there even is a Senate GOP majority and running against the dysfunction perpetuated by the same. He plans to do this by playing offense with long shot (and expensive) candidates who refuse to even identify as Republicans.
This hasn't stopped Skelos and his crew from talking up their chances to reporters though. Check out this gem:
Senate Republicans are privately feeling confident about winning back some seats that they have lost in recent years to the Democrats as they seek to retain control of the Senate majority.
Best of luck with that, Dean. When your whole strategy seems to be to run away from your party and from the facts as they are, that's quite a tall order.
