It's a hell of an achievement when you think about it. The teabaggers took a seat that had been in Republican hands longer than anyone on the face of the Earth has been alive and lost it. Then, in a brilliant and shrewd maneuver of towering genius, managed to lose it all over again just two weeks later.
It's over. Rep. Bill Owens, D-Plattsburgh, leads by 3,105 votes with 3,072 absentee ballots left to be counted.
So why did Owens win? There were more than a few reasons.
MODERATE VIEWS. It has been repeated over and over again that NY-23 is a moderate, not conservative, district. In fact, if you look at John McHugh, he was known for being more of a moderate Republican. Upstate New York districts tend to get a "conservative" label because usually these districts are red districts with Republican enrollment advantages. But NY-23 isn't your average red district. The 23rd went for President Barack Obama in 2008 and that was with McHugh winning big over the Democratic challenger, Michael Oot. What was clear then is clear now: This district is a moderate district, not a conservative one. And while it wasn't popular at the time, the Democrats picking a moderate independent to run as their candidate was brilliant and a successful strategy from the start.
HOFFMAN'S WEAK CANDIDACY. There will no doubt be conservatives who see Hoffman as their kind of candidate, but he really did run a weak campaign. For someone looking to represent a congressional district, he didn't do anything to appeal to the congressional district. It was the Watertown Daily Times who pointed out that Hoffman was more of a national conservative candidate than a local one. This was true throughout. He was very uninformed on key local issues. He seemed to enjoy going on Glenn Beck (he is Hoffman's mentor, after all) and being talked about on Rush Limbaugh instead of focusing on the people who would really matter: The constituency in NY-23.
SCOZZAFAVA'S EXIT. It was said after Republican Dede Scozzafava dropped out on Saturday that her votes would probably go to Hoffman. It seems like, at least at first glance, that such an assumption was wrong. Scozzafava is more in line with Owens than Hoffman. I know it might seem unlikely for a Republican to support a Democratic candidate, but people also vote their views. If there is a candidate who is a moderate independent like they are, they will support that person. Bill Owens presented that option.
As an aside, Scozzafava as a candidate is a strong woman who would have served the district well. Admittedly, she wasn't a bad option. She represents the good of the Republican Party and is someone the Republican Party should be modeled after: A moderate or traditional conservative who votes what she believes in. But she faced an uphill battle with the NRCC and conservatives within the Republican Party undermining her campaign. As a result, she wasn't able to maintain a strong campaign and had to pull out. That helped Owens. Either her supporters stayed home or voted for Owens. That's my conclusion.
ISSUES. From the beginning, Owens has been pushing one issue: Jobs. He has mentioned repeatedly his role in creating 2,000 jobs. The economy is an important issue. Owens knew that and hit on it the whole campaign. Hoffman was too busy schmoozing with Fox News. When voters see you talking about job creation, they will listen. Voters need a representative, not a television star.
Owens will serve the district well. They need someone who will fight for them and help the key parts of the district. We now hold 27 of the 29 congressional districts in New York. That is amazing. Only NY-3 (Peter King) and my district, NY-26 (Chris Lee), are in Republican hands.
It's a good night in NY-23. Congratulations to Bill Owens.
With about 70% in, Owens lead continues to grow. Unless Hoffman has many thousands of votes stashed in the St Lawrence county districts where they are having machine problems, I just don't see how he beats Owens. Does Hoffman have a secret Watertown Palinite contingent? I doubt it.
I think the next Congressman from NY-23 is Bill Owens.
As of about an hour ago, Dede Scozzafava has endorsed Bill Owens in the NY-23rd special election. Via Watertown Daily Times:
I want to thank you for your support and friendship. Over the past 24 hours, I have had encouraging words sent to my family and me. Many of you have asked me whom you should support on Tuesday.
Since announcing the suspension of my campaign, I have thought long and hard about what is best for the people of this District, and how to answer your questions. This is not a decision that I have made lightly.
You know me, and throughout my career, I have been always been an independent voice for the people I represent. I have stood for our honest principles, and a truthful discussion of the issues, even when it cost me personally and politically. Since beginning my campaign, I have told you that this election is not about me; it's about the people of this District.
It is in this spirit that I am writing to let you know I am supporting Bill Owens for Congress and urge you to do the same.
It's not in the cards for me to be your representative, but I strongly believe Bill is the only candidate who can build upon John McHugh's lasting legacy in the U.S. Congress. John and I worked together on the expansion of Fort Drum and I know how important that base is to the economy of this region. I am confident that Bill will be able to provide the leadership and continuity of support to Drum Country just as John did during his tenure in Congress.
In Bill Owens, I see a sense of duty and integrity that will guide him beyond political partisanship. He will be an independent voice devoted to doing what is right for New York. Bill understands this district and its people, and when he represents us in Congress he will put our interests first.
Please join me in voting for Bill Owens on Tuesday. To address the tough challenges ahead, we must rise above partisanship and politics and work together. There's too much at stake in this election to do otherwise.
According to the Watertown Daily Times, former Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava has begun encouraging her supporters to now back Democrat Bill Owens in Tuesday's vote.
In her statement Saturday morning, the assemblywoman explained the reasons behind her decision: "It is increasingly clear that pressure is mounting on many of my supporters to shift their support. Consequently, I hereby release those individuals who have endorsed and supported my campaign to transfer their support as they see fit to do so."
During the day Saturday, she began to quietly and thoughtfully encourage her supporters to vote for Democrat William L. Owens.
This comes in the context of the Daily Times also switching it's own endorsement from Scozzafava to Owens:
The Watertown Daily Times initially endorsed Ms. Scozzafava as the best-qualified candidate in the race. We still think she is. However, in suspending her campaign she released her supporters' commitment to her. That left voters to choose between Mr. Owens and Mr. Hoffman.
Of the two, Bill Owens is by far the superior and only choice.
...
Mr. Hoffman is running as an ideologue. If he carries out his pledges on earmarks, taxation, labor law reform and other inflexible positions, Northern New York will suffer. This rural district depends on the federal government for an investment in Fort Drum and its soldiers, environmental protection of our international waterway and the Adirondack Park, and the livelihood of all our dairy farmers across the district, among other support. Our representative cannot be locked into rigid promises and policies that would jeopardize these critical sectors of our economy.
When you're talking about three names on the ballot with 14 points up for grabs, it's still anybody's guess as to how things are going to shake out on Tuesday. But this could be a big sign that the moderate Republicans are not happy about the Teabaggers taking over their party.
It did not take long for the NRCC to announce their support of Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman after their candidate, Dede Scozzafava, abruptly dropped out of the race. They made the announcement earlier today, with Congressman Pete Sessions (R-TX), head of the NRCC, Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) and Minority WHIP Eric Cantor (R-VA) releasing a joint statement calling on Republicans to support Hoffman in the 23rd congressional district.
Here is part of the statement (H/T to TPM):
"With Assemblywoman Scozzafava suspending her campaign, we urge voters to support Doug Hoffman's candidacy in New York's 23rd Congressional District.
"He is the only active candidate in the race who supports lower taxes, fiscal responsibility and opposes Nancy Pelosi's agenda of government-run healthcare, more government and less jobs.
"We look forward to welcoming Doug Hoffman into the House Republican Conference as we work together for the good of our nation."
But this is a different tune that the Republicans are singing. It wasn't long ago that they were defending Scozzafava and attacking Hoffman, saying he lacked "integrity" and "cross party appeal" to win.
Here are some quotes from the NRCC giving their assessment of Hoffman:
"Fortunately, the local Republican county chairs had the foresight to see that Doug Hoffman lacked the integrity and qualities needed to be elected to anything - let alone Congress," Lindsay added. [The Hill, 9/28/09]
The national GOP acknowledges Hoffman and his moneyed supporters make their job harder, but they emphasize Scozzafava is still the favorite.
Paul Lindsay, a spokesman for the NRCC, said Hoffman's political calculus doesn't add up.
"We're pleased that the Republican county chairs in New York had the foresight to not even consider Hoffman among the final three candidates, and the Washington-based endorsements and misleading political ads that are meant for his benefit will ultimately backfire on his futile sour-grapes campaign," Lindsay said. [The Hill, 10/03/09]
The National Republican Congressional Committee bristles at Mr. Hoffman's campaign, with a spokesman arguing that he's "running a smoke-and-mirrors campaign that has absolutely no path to victory and is based entirely on Washington-based endorsements that carry no weight among voters in central and northern New York."
NRCC spokesman Paul Lindsay said Mr. Hoffman doesn't even technically live in the district and also said Mr. Hoffman had promised to back the Republican candidate before withdrawing that support and deciding to run.
"At the end of the day, we could not be more pleased that Dede is the only candidate who possesses the principles and cross-party appeal that is needed to win in this swing district," Mr. Lindsay added. [Washington Times, 10/06/09]
"There is still a path to victory, and we will continue to support [Scozzafava]," NRCC spokesman Paul Lindsay said. [The Hill, 10/26/09]
Some conservatives support Scozzafava, insisting that a one-size-fits-all strategy isn't a good approach to districts such as New York 23.
"Outside endorsements will not change the fact that she's the only candidate with the cross party appeal that can win this swing district," said Paul Lindsay, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. McClatchy, 10/30/09
Amazing what one day will do to the NRCC's approach. One day they are backing their candidate saying she can still win while standing by their past opinions of Hoffman and the next day, they are already welcoming Hoffman to the House GOP conference.
Dede Scozzafava, the Republican and Independence parties candidate, announced Saturday that she is suspending her campaign for the 23rd Congressional District and releasing all her supporters.
The state Assemblywoman has not thrown her support to either Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate, or Bill Owens, the Democratic candidate.
"Today, I again seek to act for the good of our community," Ms. Scozzafava wrote in a letter to friends and supporters. "It is increasingly clear that pressure is mounting on many of my supporters to shift their support. Consequently, I hereby release those individuals who have endorsed and supported my campaign to transfer their support as they see fit to do so. I am and have always been a proud Republican. It is my hope that with my actions today, my party will emerge stronger and our district and our nation can take an important step towards restoring the enduring strength and economic prosperity that has defined us for generations."
Ms. Scozzafava told the Watertown Daily Times that Siena Research Institute poll numbers show her too far behind to catch up - and she lacks enough money to spend on advertising in the last three days to make a difference. Mr. Owens has support from 36 percent of likely voters in the poll, with Mr. Hoffman garnering 35 percent support. Ms. Scozzafava has support from 20 percent of those polled.
A GOP source tells TPM that the National Republican Congressional Committee is going to get behind Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman in the NY-23 special election, now that moderate Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava has dropped out.
Hoffman is in a close race with Democrat Bill Owens, and Scozzafava suspended her campaign today after polls showed her in third place. With the NRCC's backing, Hoffman will go from insurgent third-party candidate to being the de facto new Republican nominee.
NRCC chairman Pete Sessions (R-TX) will have a statement out shortly.
I can't say I saw this one coming. It seems that George Pataki has decided to embrace the wingnuts and make common cause with the likes of Sarah Palin, Jim DeMint, Michelle Bachman, Pat Buchanan, Michelle Malkin and Rick Perry by endorsing Con candidate and teabagger darling Doug Hoffman.
As someone personally engaged in the way of life in the Adirondacks and Northern New York, I'm deeply concerned about the course of our nation and the outcome of the election in the 23rd Congressional District.
Simply put, we cannot afford to give another vote to Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid we cannot afford another vote for higher taxes, we cannot afford another vote for government run health care and we absolutely cannot afford another vote to take away from hard working men and women the right to secret ballot.
That is why tonight, I'm proud to endorse Doug Hoffman, a Republican, running on the Conservative line for Congress in the 23rd Congressional District.
So, Pataki is making nice with the teabagging fringe by endorsing their flavor of the month. Here's what I want to know: why? To what end? Why is one of the last moderate Republicans, a man with next to nothing in common with the Malkin wing of the GOP, jumping into this race on their side?
The special election in NY-23, like the spring's special election in NY-20, has been heralded as nationally significant, in ways that other special elections this year have not.
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand helped Scott Murphy win NY-20, with political and fund-raising advice, a TV ad, and several appearances.
And she will be helping NY-23 Democratic candidate Bill Owens tomorrow with an appearance at Tug Hill Vineyards in Lowville, in the western part of this sprawling district.
A new Research 2000 poll commissioned by Daily Kos shows that the mess in the NY-23rd special election is getting nothing but messier. Compared to the previous poll, Democrat Bill Owens is again statistically tied--but this time, it's with Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman. Owens takes 33%, Hoffman 32%, and Republican Dede Scozzafava has slipped down to a distant third with 21% of the vote. Scozzafava and Hoffman were nearly reversed in the last poll, with the Republican getting 30% and the Conservative 23% respectively.
Undecideds in the new poll clocked in at 14%, making the whole thing very much up in the air.
Clearly, Scozzafava has suffered under the combination of the constant teabagging, the far-right endorsements of Hoffman--who has now taken the lead among registered Republicans--and the failure of her campaign to manage events.
I'll tell you what Dede should have done: Run as a Democrat. God knows there's more tolerance for diversity of opinion and moderates over here than there is back in the Republican caucus.
NY Teabag Conservative Party Chairman Michael Long made an appearance on Hardball this Friday and did his best Sarah Palin impersonation, i.e. not saying anything of substance about ANYTHING.
This race just keeps getting more fun to watch. The late breaking news tonight is that Caribou Barbie herself has endorsed Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman. That's right. The GOP's most recent VP nominee just declined to endorse the GOP's candidate and went on and gave her blessing to the teabagger. The ever awesome Weekly Standard has the scoop.
THE WEEKLY STANDARD just received a statement from Sarah Palin endorsing conservative Doug Hoffman for Congress:
The people of the 23rd Congressional District of New York are ready to shake things up, and Doug Hoffman is coming on strong as Election Day approaches! He needs our help now.
The votes of every member of Congress affect every American, so it's important for all of us to pay attention to this important Congressional campaign in upstate New York. I am very pleased to announce my support for Doug Hoffman in his fight to be the next Representative from New York's 23rd Congressional district. It's my honor to endorse Doug and to do what I can to help him win, including having my political action committee, SarahPAC, donate to his campaign the maximum contribution allowed by law.
Our nation is at a crossroads, and this is once again a "time for choosing."
I wonder if she can see Watertown from her house?
I'm not kidding when I say that I'm going to be sorry to see this one end.
"Tea Party Patriots" are planning to be field volunteers for Conservative Doug Hoffman, who is running against Republican Dede Scozzafava and Democrat Bill Owens to replace John McHugh in NY-23.
The Albany area teabaggers' message boards are full of disgust for Scozzafava, a six-term Assemblywoman who is moderate on some social and labor issues.
And, along with North Country and other nearby teabaggers, they will be putting some hundreds of boots on the ground for Hoffman between now and Election Day.
A Wall Street Journal article last week noted that the teabaggers are "waging war" on moderate candidates like Scozzafava.
And indeed, there is some martial teabagger rhetoric, below.
Democrat Bill Owens has come from behind to open a slim lead over Republican Dede Scozzafava in the race for the 23rd Congressional District seat, according to an independent poll released today.
If he holds onto his lead, Owens, a political newcomer, would become the first Democrat to represent the rural 11-county district of Northern and Central New York since the Civil War era.
Owens erased a 7 percentage point deficit in the past two weeks and is now the frontrunner with 33 percent of likely voters, the Siena College poll found.
Owens leads Scozzafava by 4 percentage points and Conservative Doug Hoffman by 10 points, according to the poll taken this week by the Siena Research Institute.
The House GOP conference is bitterly divided over a centrist New York Republican's run for the House seat vacated by Army Secretary John McHugh.
Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, who backs abortion rights and has voiced support for gay rights, has drawn a challenger from the right who is running on the Conservative Party line. And though House leaders have urged conference members to donate, many have pointedly refused to back Scozzafava.
The Club for Growth, Concerned Women of America, former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-Tenn.) and evangelical leader Gary Bauer have all endorsed Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate.
The divide could foreshadow bigger troubles ahead for a party that hopes to make big gains in the House in 2010 and dreams of taking back the majority. Some members think that will be impossible as long as the party is divided over supporting centrist candidates.
"The Hoffman campaign is a real revolt against the Republican establishment and leadership, not just in New York but nationally," said a conservative GOP congressman, adding that Scozzafava's candidacy "could set off a civil war inside the Republican Party."
Bill Owens isn't a Democrat (not officially, anyway, until he votes in November) and since he wasn't an elected official, much isn't known about him. I started looking at Owens and came up with a number of different positions, but there were more questions that came from that post.
Obviously, health care is a big issue. There has been some debate about where Owens stands. But now, at least to me, his stance is clear.
The question about Owens and his support of a public option might seem complicated, but it really isn't. Owens isn't opposed to a public option. That, to him, isn't the biggest piece.
He has outlined his ideas for health care reform already. If a public option is in a bill that meets his objectives, he will support it. That has been repeated to me over and over again. It's not the public option that he is opposed to. He wants to see a strong comprehensive bill. I think we all can agree that there is a such thing as a weak health care reform bill even with a public option. Because if we don't reform the whole system and just throw in a public option as a deal sweetener, that's not much of a reform package.
Owens wants a strong comprehensive bill. I think that's something we all want.
The Owens campaign also confirmed that Owens supports climate change legislation. When asked specifically about the bill that passed the House earlier this year, Owens said he would have supported (and supports) that legislation.
It is easy to look at Owens and say he is going to be a "conservaDem" or a "Blue Dog." He doesn't see himself as conservative or progressive. He seems himself as a moderate independent. Is he going to be the next Alan Grayson? Probably not. But I don't see him as the next Mike Ross either.
With Bill Clinton and the Working Families Party getting behind Owens it is time that we get behind him. Is he the perfect progressive? No. But he is a moderate that we can work with. He's a vote for climate change and for health care reform. He is for job creation and ending regressive taxation and wasteful tax cuts. Those are all good things we can get behind.
Plenty of good news on the campaign trail for Democratic candidate Bill Owens. A key minor party backed him and a key Democratic figure sent out an e-mail blast for him.
The Working Families Party announced today that it has endorsed Owens in the 23rd congressional district race featuring Owens, Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava and Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman.
The importance of the WFP endorsement will be known later, as the party is still plotting its course forward with the New York City elections just around the corner (although, it's hard to imagine that any of the candidates they have backed in the city have the task ahead of them like Owens, but I digress) and a number of issues they were going to be active on. It is key that they endorsed Owens when you consider that in 2004 and 2008, they supported Scozzafava. Of course, Scozzafava ran unopposed in both elections and there was no alternative.
Also helping Owens out today is former President Bill Clinton, who sent out a fundraising e-mail for Owens.
Here is part of the e-mail:
Every once in a while, a special election comes along that's bigger than just one candidate or one office. Such an election is taking place right now in Upstate New York. It can expand our Democratic Majority in Congress this year.
With the media closely watching this race, victory or defeat will also be seen as a referendum on President Obama's agenda for health care and on our entire progressive agenda. So it's critical that we stand together as Democrats behind our candidate, Bill Owens.
With just 26 days left before the November 3rd special election, Republicans and their conservative outside groups are expected to spend over a million dollars attacking Bill. Our top strategists just briefed me on this race. They said that Bill needs to raise $83,000 before Friday to stay on the air combating the more than $500K Republicans have already spent attacking him.
There is a lot going on in NY-23 today and in recent days. I'll have more on this race later.
The other day, I shattered the ugly belief that the Republican candidate in the 23rd congressional district, Dede Scozzafava, was the most liberal. That post was a direct response to Markos' post Thursday, which also included a critique of Democratic candidate Bill Owens.
One of the arguments made by Markos is that Owens is a "conservaDem" and that he would be just another member of the Blue Dog Coalition should he win in November. Owens, who was an independent but has changed his party affiliation to become a Democrat, was picked over two Democrats to run.
I find myself nodding and shaking my head in agreement with a lot of the latest commentary on the 23rd special election from Markos. I've said from the beginning that I was uncomfortable with Owens, a lifelong independent who doesn't seem to support a progressive agenda or even a mainstream Democratic agenda. All signs say that we would be better off with the most liberal Republican in the country than another conservadem in a Congress that already has too many conservadems. This blog is not simply a Democratic blog; it's a progressive blog, created by progressives who want to take back Albany. In the same way, that alliance towards the progressive agenda can and should take priority over an alliance to a subpar Democrat facing a quite decent Republican.
So why did Owens win? There were more than a few reasons.
