2012 Congressional Map: Discuss

redictricting (4.00 / 1)

Maffei's district on this map looks even worse than the screwy snake district Slaughter has right now.  

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by: Jim in Holley @ Fri Nov 21, 2008 at 16:33:11 PM CST

I did that because (0.00 / 0)

Those three counties on the top of the state are reasonably Democratic counties, and its so sad to see them represented by a guy like John McHugh.

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by: Amherst Guy @ Fri Nov 21, 2008 at 16:47:54 PM CST

[ Parent ]

it looks like another map (4.00 / 5)

drawn for the benefits of incumbents and parties in power.  In short, chuck it and start over with something that actually reflects commonalities among the voters who live in the districts instead.

However, there's even a problem beyond that - I don't think Arcuri lives in the district you've drawn for him.  I'm pretty sure he's in Oneida County, which you gave McHugh.

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by: simonstl @ Fri Nov 21, 2008 at 16:35:01 PM CST

He doesn't. (0.00 / 0)

He lives in Utica.

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by: Steaming Pile @ Mon Nov 24, 2008 at 15:25:26 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Mike Arcuri (0.00 / 0)

You put Mike Arcuri's home in McHugh's district.

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by: BH_Liddel_Hart @ Fri Nov 21, 2008 at 16:39:03 PM CST

Right. (0.00 / 0)

Swap Oneida for Montgomery and Fulton?

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by: Amherst Guy @ Fri Nov 21, 2008 at 16:42:22 PM CST

[ Parent ]

If I'm selfish, (4.00 / 1)

I say I love this map. Having Livingston County put in Massa's district rather than Chris Lee's would be fantastic for me. However, I think Massa would be gravely endangered if he lost the portions of Monroe County he currently has. I'm afraid putting Wyoming in the district instead almost guarantees it would revert to red.

I also agree with the above comment that the Maffei district is questionable.

Finally, it's my understanding that the Albany area is the only upstate region that had been doing well and gaining some population. Here in western NY, however, we're hemorrhaging people. I see Chris Lee as the most likely victim.

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by: Historical Pessimist @ Fri Nov 21, 2008 at 16:40:55 PM CST

The problem with that (0.00 / 0)

is that WNY lost a congressman in each of the last 2 redistrictings, leaving it effectively underrepresented, even today.

Also, if you scrap the Lee district, you're basically dooming both Higgins and Massa to lose.

What if we rotated some Monroe into Massa, some Orleans and Genesee into Slaughter, and Wyoming into Lee? It helps Massa at the "expense" of Slaughter who and is a wash for Lee.

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by: Amherst Guy @ Fri Nov 21, 2008 at 16:45:43 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Was it Adama? (4.00 / 1)

Someone commented here soon after the election that the GLOW region was the "Idaho of NY." There is quite a lot to that, but not every county is as deep red as the others. I was fascinated with the map in the Times that not only let you look at presidential results by county, it also let you look at shifts from last cycle. Democrats gained in every county but Niagara (?) and Montgomery. But Livingston gave a full 13% more votes to Obama than Kerry, while the Democratic gains in the rest of the GLOW region were in the mid single digits (perhaps depressed Republican turnout as much as Democratic gains -- I'm not sure). So perhaps GLOW counties won't always be a wasteland for Democrats, at least not all of them.

In terms of your specific suggestions, they make sense, sort of. But I think the census figures will trump everything, and western NY will loose another seat.

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by: Historical Pessimist @ Fri Nov 21, 2008 at 17:09:31 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Yep, I think that was me. (0.00 / 0)

About the possibility of turning a district red again, that's what worries me too. Unfortunately, Wyoming County has to go somewhere, and as proven this election year no matter how much sense we try to pount into their heads it's still probably going to be bright, screaming red. It almost makes me think it would be worth it to lump much of the southern tier up through Wyoming and Genesee into one Republican district. If the locals are going to vote Row B no matter what, don't bother trying to dilute them into other districts and let them have their ineffectual minority-party rep.

Of course, that idea rather sucks for those of us who live here, and makes me want to be one of those people we're hemhorraging.

I'd be less worried if I had more faith in the intelligence of the locals, to get the idea that Democratic reps get stuff done in a Democratic government. Unfortunately each and every seat that we win upstate requires convincing people all over again.  

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by: Adama @ Sat Nov 22, 2008 at 12:15:52 PM CST

[ Parent ]

If you were to cut up 26 (0.00 / 0)

I wouldn't put any of it in either 27 or 29.  I'd split half the district for Maffei and the other half for Slaughter.  I think that would avoid the Republican problems here.  

"Never be afraid to stand with the minority when the minority is right, for the minority which is right will one day be the majority."


-William Jennings Bryan

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by: BingChester @ Fri Nov 21, 2008 at 17:40:19 PM CST

[ Parent ]

You cant put 650,000 people (0.00 / 0)

into just 2 districts. You'll have 410,000 people left over.

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by: Amherst Guy @ Fri Nov 21, 2008 at 22:39:27 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Agreed (0.00 / 0)

I don't agree with cutting out an Albany seat at all.  Sorry folks, but the best seats to eliminate are 26/27 (merge them) and 22.  I know it stinks to lose Hinchey, but his district is horribly drawn and was an intentionally Democratic district to make other districts more Republican.  Hinchey's 70 years old, and the more elderly incumbents are more likely to be drawn out then Tonko/Gillibrand.

"Never be afraid to stand with the minority when the minority is right, for the minority which is right will one day be the majority."


-William Jennings Bryan

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by: BingChester @ Fri Nov 21, 2008 at 17:44:33 PM CST

[ Parent ]

You can't eliminate 2 upstate seats (0.00 / 0)

The numbers aren't there for it. You still need 770,000 people per seat, and there's about 8 million people upstate.

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by: Amherst Guy @ Fri Nov 21, 2008 at 18:22:35 PM CST

[ Parent ]

There are more people downstate now than in 2002 (0.00 / 0)

So how will the numbers work by eliminating a seat in Long Island or NYC?  I don't see that working very well either.

"Never be afraid to stand with the minority when the minority is right, for the minority which is right will one day be the majority."


-William Jennings Bryan

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by: BingChester @ Fri Nov 21, 2008 at 18:46:19 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Tonko's District (0.00 / 0)

Tonko lives in Montgomery County, so you are putting Tonko into the new 20th and cutting Acuri out of the district.  

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by: JustAStudent @ Fri Nov 21, 2008 at 18:57:56 PM CST

[ Parent ]

It is my sincere hope (4.00 / 1)

that New York has non-partisan redistricting in place in time for the 2012 reapportionment.

While I recognize that this would most likely enliven Republicans chances to win back seats they have been losing to Democrats the last few years, the fact of the matter is that competitive elections are good for democracy.

We could use a little of that in New York State government.

However, assuming the laws stay as they are now and New York loses two seats as projected then the first question in the redistricting process is...

Where are the Republicans?

As of today, 2008, we have Peter King on Long Island, John McHugh in the North Country and Chris Lee out west.

In the election of 2010 Democrats will have to aggressively defend Eric Massa and Mike Arcuri, who proved to be considerably less secure in his seat then he ought to have been. I'm guessing Maffei is fairly safe. We also have to consider Brian Higgins as a front runner as replacement Senator so there will either be a special election to fill that seat and someone new to defend or it'll be a highly contested open seat in 2010. In either case it is probably fairly safely democratic as long as the powers that be don't select a crook or schmuck to replace Higgins.

Ok, given that as the layout, Democrats can therefore be very aggressive in going after Lee, King and McHugh. My guess is one of the three loses their seat. Lee is the best bet for that leaving McHugh and King to be redistricted out of their seats in 2012.

Like you I am less familiar with the borderlines downstate but I figure there must be a way to slice and dice Long Island and put King in a tenuous position. He is vulnerable as it is and may not survive 2010. McHugh is probably the safest.

The way to slice McHugh's district is virtically I think. First of all, NYC districts will edge northward again. So Hall's district will edge northward and Hinchey's will probably edge westward. Shift Maffei, Tonko, and Gillibrand northward so that each takes a slice of the Republican portions of the 23rd without taking too big a chunk and the 23rd disappears. Give Gillibrand a small portion of Tonko's district to strengthen her base and counter the likely loss of Dutchess county votes. Keep Maffei strongly centered in Syracuse.

Then you slice and dice Slaughter and Higgins and Massa's and Lee's districts in order to strenghten the democratic base in Massa's and Lee's without taking too much away from Slaughter and Higgins annd the job is done.
 

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by: Andrew C. White @ Fri Nov 21, 2008 at 17:12:33 PM CST

Why are we eliminating a seat in Long Island? (0.00 / 0)

Has Long Island lost population?  Is Long Island the reason that NY is losing a seat?

Sure, it's possible to eliminate King's seat via re-districting, but it's simply not fair to the residents of Long Island.  The eliminated seats need to come from upstate, as that's where the population loss came from.

"Never be afraid to stand with the minority when the minority is right, for the minority which is right will one day be the majority."


-William Jennings Bryan

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by: BingChester @ Fri Nov 21, 2008 at 17:34:05 PM CST

[ Parent ]

The states population will have (0.00 / 0)

actually grown. It just won't have grown enough.

First... Remember the premise... if the rules remain the way they are now then goal number one will be to eliminate the Republican seats. That means maps get drawn to eliminate King (3rd), McHugh (23rd), and Lee (26th), if they are still around. All other considerations are far down the list.

Second... I didn't say anything about eliminating a Long Island seat. I said eliminate King's seat. There is a difference. You eliminate his seat by putting him in a district with a Democrat he can't beat. It doesn't mean a district is eliminated.

Lastly, of course it's not fair. Remember the premise... if the rules remain the same as they are today.

There are no fair political rules in New York. All rules are designed to protect, enrich, and strengthen the incumbents.

If you find a rule that does not accomplish that goal and is anywhere remotely close to being a fair rule please report it to the rules committee so that it can be corrected as soon as possible.

Peace,

Andrew

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by: Andrew C. White @ Fri Nov 21, 2008 at 23:38:29 PM CST

[ Parent ]

First--nonpartisan redistricting (0.00 / 0)

So, given that is what I really want...

In the context of this discussion, you can't take Chemung County out of Massa's district-- without that he would not have won this time-- esp. if you add in Wayne, Wyoming and Livingston.

The center of Republican strength in NYS... the "Idaho" of the area, is actually Steuben County in my estimation.  Look at the NY Times map, as Historical Pessimist suggests.  Biggest dot for McCain voters in the state is Steuben.  It is the Appalachia influence seeping North, you can see it over the border in PA.  So, the GLOW region is pretty dark red, but changing due to Rochester area outmigration.  Don't lump it with Steuben and take out Chemung or you are reinforcing the bedrock R thing.

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by: robinia @ Sat Nov 22, 2008 at 08:15:31 AM CST

[ Parent ]

I hadn't noticed Chemung (0.00 / 0)

That's where Eric Massa lives, isn't it?

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by: Historical Pessimist @ Sat Nov 22, 2008 at 08:28:41 AM CST

[ Parent ]

No. (0.00 / 0)

He lives in Corning, which is in Steuben.

But, he needs Chemung (Elmira)... and the area shares an economy/labor market.

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by: robinia @ Sat Nov 22, 2008 at 08:33:11 AM CST

[ Parent ]

By the way (0.00 / 0)

770,000 is too many people per district. We really are due for an expansion of House seats. I know it can't grow forever but there is a point at which you can't allow districts to continue growing as well.

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by: Andrew C. White @ Fri Nov 21, 2008 at 17:14:12 PM CST

Horrible, Horrible Map (4.00 / 1)

No offense, but I see very little logic on this map.

Let's be honest here; by 2012 we'll probably have only one or two Republicans left.  Let's stop worrying about drawing a Republican out and let's just draw the best map possible.  

Secondly, the idea that one of the district's to be drawn out will in NYC is a little silly.  The population loss has not been in NYC, it's been entirely upstate.  That being said, I think the best district's to eliminate are 22 and 26.  22 is a completely asinine district that merges Ithaca, Binghamton, and Poughkeepsie.  Very, very silly.  Poughkeepsie belongs with either 19 or 20, Binghamton should be part of 24, and Ithaca could go either with 24 or with 25.  

Secondly, 26 could easily be eliminated.  It's a very suburban district and different parts of the district could merge into either 25 or 27.  

As it is, the above-mentioned changes will eliminate 26, it will make other districts more Democratic (like 24 and 20), and it will be a lot more logical than this map.  The only Republicans left will be McHugh (whose district will go to a Democrat once he retires) and King (who will lose that seat within the next few cycles).

A few more critiques of this map:

1) Massa's district looks even more Republican than it currently is.  

2) The only thing similar about Hall's district are a few towns in Dutchess.  Otherwise, it is an entirely different district.  That's just a horrible idea.  

3) Eliminating Tonko makes less sense than eliminating Hinchey or Slaughter.  You always eliminate a long-term incumbent who is close to retirement, like Ben Gillman in 2002.

"Never be afraid to stand with the minority when the minority is right, for the minority which is right will one day be the majority."


-William Jennings Bryan

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by: BingChester @ Fri Nov 21, 2008 at 17:30:31 PM CST

You can draw Hinchey out (0.00 / 0)

It's tougher to draw Slaughter out. She'll be competitive in any district you draw her house into.

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by: Amherst Guy @ Fri Nov 21, 2008 at 22:36:48 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Except that after 20+ years (0.00 / 0)

in the State Assembly Tonko isn't that far from retirement himself.  

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by: Andrew C. White @ Fri Nov 21, 2008 at 23:40:00 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Couple of observations (4.00 / 1)

First, it's probable that both lost districts will come from upstate; NYC has been gaining population.  In fact, there's a [very] small possibility that NYC will gain a seat while upstate will lose three.

Second, you don't have to live in a congressional district in order to represent it; the constitution only requires that you live in the same state (and nowhere does the constitution mention districts).  Of course, it doesn't help if you live outside the district; a lot of people aren't willing to vote for an "outsider."

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by: Dan Jacoby @ Fri Nov 21, 2008 at 17:32:41 PM CST

It's impossible (0.00 / 0)

Run the freaking math, everyone.

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by: Amherst Guy @ Fri Nov 21, 2008 at 18:25:35 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Run the numbers for us (0.00 / 0)

Because I don't see where your insistence on this point comes from. Logically speaking, Long Island and downstate have gained residents while upstate has lost massive amounts of individuals.

"Never be afraid to stand with the minority when the minority is right, for the minority which is right will one day be the majority."


-William Jennings Bryan

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by: BingChester @ Fri Nov 21, 2008 at 18:40:19 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Great. The numbers don't lie. (0.00 / 0)

See below.

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by: Amherst Guy @ Fri Nov 21, 2008 at 23:06:44 PM CST

[ Parent ]

It's all moot until we have the senate. (0.00 / 0)

Truly fantasy football with the State Senate in chaos.

Word from Senate is that all bets are off for 2008 until the Pad. Gen race is settled. Any updates?

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by: LOBlue @ Sat Nov 22, 2008 at 10:00:50 AM CST

[ Parent ]

great post (0.00 / 0)

I'll begin criticizing once I've had some time to think.

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by: Exile on Ericsson St. @ Fri Nov 21, 2008 at 17:49:06 PM CST

The only way the Upstate "only" loses one seat (4.00 / 1)

Is if prison inmates are counted as local residents, something the GOP has used to gerrymander their upstate seats in order to hold onto the Senate far longer than a minority party ever should have.

That said, I have two problems with the way you drew this - the first is that you split a lot of counties - there is a way to draw this map and respect the territorial integrity of each county.  You don't have to split as many counties as you have in this map.  Probably could get it down to five or six total in the state.

Second, you are creating some massively expensive districts here - one of your districts (the 20th) has at least four media markets.  While preferring one party over another may be unseemly, this is a progressive blog, so I don't really have a problem with that, but I still believe districts should be competitive.  Having these very expensive districts makes it MORE likely incumbents will be safe, and less likely we will have a responsive a House as we could - or should.

Thanks for the effort though.  Great job.

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by: Lead Dog @ Fri Nov 21, 2008 at 19:33:47 PM CST

Stats (0.00 / 0)

NYC/LI        Rest of State
6.5 Million   5.5 Million       Registered Voters, 2008
54%           46%               % of Statewide
11 Million    19.3 Million      Population, 2006
57%           43%               % of Statewide
17              10                  Congressmen losing 1 upstate
63%           37%               % of Statewide
18              9                   Congressmen losing 2 upstate
67%           33%               % of Statewide

NYC/LI+       Rest of State
Westchester+
Rockland
7.4 Million   4.6 Million       Registered Voters, 2008
62%           38%               % of Statewide
12.3 Million  7 Million         Population, 2006
63%           37%               % of Statewide
18              9                   Congressmen losing 1 upstate
67%           33%               % of Statewide
19              8                   Congressmen losing 2 upstate
70%           30%               % of Statewide

So please someone make the argument to me again that Upstate should lose 2 seats after looking at these current numbers.

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by: Amherst Guy @ Fri Nov 21, 2008 at 23:05:22 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Because reapportionment is based on POPULATION (4.00 / 2)

Not voter registration statistics.

The Census doesn't count just voters, or just registered voters, or just people over 18, or even citizens over 18.

The Census counts PEOPLE.  And is used to apportion house seats to the various states.  Remember, too that the Bronx, Queens and Brooklyn are covered by the Voting Rights Act, meaning that representation is not simply a question of numbers, but on other equal protection/civil rights issues.  New York City will not lose a seat.

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by: Lead Dog @ Fri Nov 21, 2008 at 23:43:36 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I put population numbers in my post. (0.00 / 0)

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by: Amherst Guy @ Sat Nov 22, 2008 at 00:10:54 AM CST

[ Parent ]

The numbers I saw (0.00 / 0)

Indicate that NYS's population is close to 18 million.  Your numbers are 14 million.  So clearly we have a dispute about numbers here.  Where's the most accurate source to get population stats from?

"Never be afraid to stand with the minority when the minority is right, for the minority which is right will one day be the majority."


-William Jennings Bryan

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by: BingChester @ Sat Nov 22, 2008 at 10:28:04 AM CST

[ Parent ]

See my post above (0.00 / 0)

There are a couple of approaches to this, but, for me, I would go with the the US Census Bureau's population estimates (rather than their projections, which are only statewide). They have the pop. estimates mapped by county and by micropolitan and metropolitan area (which does not include the rural counties, but, gives some context on which urbanized areas are gaining and losing population).

How many people are registered to vote... or, how many are prisoners or young people who can't vote.... does not change the equation at all. Apportionment is done by population.

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by: robinia @ Sat Nov 22, 2008 at 11:11:02 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Um, Census.gov (0.00 / 0)

Try this for starters . . .

http://factfinder.census.gov/s...

And if you take the current population (19,297,729) and cut that into 27 districts, that's 714,731 per district.

Amherst Guy is correct that you will have 4 seats in upstate/WNY, but how far east they extend remains to be seen.

My view is that some mixture of Hinchey, Hall, Lowey and Engel becomes three seats, and that Arcuri, Tonko, Gillibrand and McHugh becomes three seats.

New York City currently has eleven seats, with two split seats (Ackerman and Engel). With the City accounting for 83 percent of the State's net population growth, I think it unlikely the City loses a seat.

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by: Lead Dog @ Sat Nov 22, 2008 at 11:30:05 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Tough (0.00 / 0)

Hinchey and Engel's seats are easily divisible.  I don't know which of the later four you could eliminate.  McHugh's seat is so gigantic that it would be very difficult to get rid of.  

"Never be afraid to stand with the minority when the minority is right, for the minority which is right will one day be the majority."


-William Jennings Bryan

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by: BingChester @ Sat Nov 22, 2008 at 13:37:57 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Try these... to make it easy (0.00 / 0)

Here are some % of 2000 pop numbers that the 2007 pop represents by county.  Remember, while NYS grew, it grew more slowly than the rest of the US, so, just maintaining 100 of population from 2000 is not enough...

Table 1: Annual Estimates of the Population for Counties of New York: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2007
Geographic Area

New York 101.69%
.Albany County 101.61%
.Allegany County 99.42%
.Bronx County 103.08%
.Broome County 97.72%
.Cattaraugus County 95.39%
.Cayuga County 97.69%
.Chautauqua County 95.85%
.Chemung County 96.65%
.Chenango County 99.62%
.Clinton County 102.91%
.Columbia County 98.84%
.Cortland County 99.53%
.Delaware County 96.32%
.Dutchess County 104.50%
.Erie County 96.11%
.Essex County 98.12%
.Franklin County 98.66%
.Fulton County 100.07%
.Genesee County 96.28%
.Greene County 102.18%
.Hamilton County 94.35%
.Herkimer County 97.10%
.Jefferson County 104.89%
.Kings County 102.54%
.Lewis County 98.25%
.Livingston County 98.24%
.Madison County 100.56%
.Monroe County 99.23%
.Montgomery County 97.96%
.Nassau County 97.90%
.New York County 105.44%
.Niagara County 97.73%
.Oneida County 98.66%
.Onondaga County 99.06%
.Ontario County 103.72%
.Orange County 110.49%
.Orleans County 95.92%
.Oswego County 99.25%
.Otsego County 101.17%
.Putnam County 103.91%
.Queens County 101.84%
.Rensselaer County 101.82%
.Richmond County 108.54%
.Rockland County 103.39%
.St. Lawrence County 98.10%
.Saratoga County 107.58%
.Schenectady County 102.91%
.Schoharie County 101.52%
.Schuyler County 98.98%
.Seneca County 102.66%
.Steuben County 98.12%
.Suffolk County 102.39%
.Sullivan County 103.16%
.Tioga County 97.43%
.Tompkins County 104.72%
.Ulster County 102.31%
.Warren County 104.49%
.Washington County 102.79%
.Wayne County 97.36%
.Westchester County 103.02%
.Wyoming County 96.56%
.Yates County 99.74%

My calculations based on:
Table 1: Annual Estimates of the Population for Counties of New York: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2007 (CO-EST2007-01-36)
Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau
Release Date: March 20, 2008

The estimates table can be linked to by going to the link Lead Dog posts below-- thanks, Lead Dog, I already had the table copied into my computer, so, wasn't going after it again...

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by: robinia @ Sat Nov 22, 2008 at 14:24:39 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Prison inmates (0.00 / 0)

Counting prison inmates as "residents" for rural counties upstate with prisons is one of the dark, miserable secrets of how the Republicans kept power in the NYS Senate for so long-- they kept putting prisons in remote Republican districts and moving downstate people, mostly minorities, into them, using the draconian Rockefeller drug laws and racist enforcement.  Disgusting.  That said, the law that requires that prison inmates be counted in the place that they "reside" (are imprisoned) is federal, and we can't change it from here.  It also totally skews the distribution of federal funds to places that house prisons, vs. places from which the inmates come (where their families still live...).

Best approach to this particular problem: close down the prisons.  The work being done to eliminate "kiddie jails" upstate and replace them with community-based programs downstate is an excellent start.  Revision of Rockefeller drug laws would be the big step forward, and, if done before the census, would do much more than any gerrymandering we could imagine to balance the power and truly represent the people of this state.  Pardon the slight hyperbole, but, to a certain extent, NYS Republicans are still working on the "3/5ths of the slave population" apportionment system.  I mean, if you are in shackles and can't vote, you are kinda in shackles and can't vote, ya know?

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by: robinia @ Sat Nov 22, 2008 at 08:31:17 AM CST

[ Parent ]

I don't think that is true (0.00 / 0)

But I will investigate and report back.

This could be one of those classic residence v. domicile issues, because their are literally people incarcerated upstate who are paying taxes and maintaining households downstate.  Granted, not many, but enough to warrant discussion/litigation.

Which brings me to another point - sampling.  With Democrats in the House, Senate and White House, we could deploy sampling methods in the 2010 Census.  The Republicans have generally opposed sampling, which is used to get a more accurate read of traditionally undercounted communities, primarily persons of color in urban areas.

Many demographers and urban planners believe, for example that NYC's "actual" population is closer to 9 million.  Similar "undercounts" present in upstate cities as well.

While sampling may complicate internal state political considerations, it may also mitigate our population loss, somewhat, to where we "only" lose one seat, not two.  Time will tell.

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by: Lead Dog @ Sat Nov 22, 2008 at 11:41:30 AM CST

[ Parent ]

No, really, it is true (0.00 / 0)

Makes absolutely no difference whether or not you own property.  If you are in prison, you count toward federal school aid, road/transportation aid, and apportionment based on where you are incarcerated.  Even though you don't use the streets, and your kids back in Bronx need the school aid.  Check it out, it is really the case.  And, it is why, rather than spurring real economic development in upstate counties as they suffered through the late eighties, nineties, and early aughties, Republicans in NY built prisons and youth detention facilities and shipped downstate population upstate.  

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by: robinia @ Sat Nov 22, 2008 at 12:27:43 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Robina's right. (0.00 / 0)

it's all about the senate.

Would be interesting to see how the 4 proposed prison closures would impact senate districts. Are these huge facilities? I can't find the prison population stats.

Has anyone redrawn State Sen. districts?

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by: LOBlue @ Sat Nov 22, 2008 at 15:31:40 PM CST

[ Parent ]

looks ok for western ny but not rest of state (0.00 / 0)

most of the  eastern districts cross the Hudson too much. Distrist are not compact enough, with too many counties are split up,especially for the Eastern and Central portions of this map.

I will hope that we get sensible districts next time round.

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by: krone5 @ Fri Nov 21, 2008 at 21:04:43 PM CST

To those wondering about Albany... (0.00 / 0)

Look, The 4 most western counties currently have 4 Congresspersons. On this map they have 2. So maybe it is right to say that its WNY losing a seat. But really no one is losing a seat, what's happening is that 10 of the 11 seats are taking tiny bits of seats around them, and its not that in 1 place 2 becomes 1, its that in all of upstate 11 becomes 10.

If we want 9-1 upstate, at least for 2012, you basically have to move a huge chunk of the Slaughter district into Chris Lee's district. At that point, the place where two Congressmen's houses are drawn into the same district has to be from somewhere past Rochester. Massa, Arcuri, Maffei, Tonko, Gillibrand, and Hinchey - pick your favorite 5 and draw out the other.

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by: Amherst Guy @ Fri Nov 21, 2008 at 22:46:10 PM CST

the line across erie county (0.00 / 0)

would you say the line you drew across erie county is the thruway or is it north or south of it because if that cuts off downtown bufflo or the intercity chris lee could win that seat and the 25 distric is only monroe county a republican like maggie brooks could win that one easilly

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by: scott rytlewski @ Sat Nov 22, 2008 at 10:49:26 AM CST

say, (0.00 / 0)

Amherst, Clarence, Alden, Marilla, Lancaster, Tonawanda, and half of Buffalo, what part tbd by the people who care way too much.

I really think that of the districts I drew that one is the most likely to happen.

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by: Amherst Guy @ Sat Nov 22, 2008 at 16:20:24 PM CST

[ Parent ]

confussed (0.00 / 0)

tbd what does that stand for

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by: scott rytlewski @ Sun Nov 23, 2008 at 09:16:11 AM CST

[ Parent ]

"To be determined" (0.00 / 0)

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by: robinia @ Sun Nov 23, 2008 at 10:26:53 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Egad (0.00 / 0)

You've got Orangetown still represented by Eliot Engel! That will not do. No that will not do at all!

"Generic comment signature."

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by: cliffweathers @ Sat Nov 22, 2008 at 13:31:14 PM CST

As an Aside (0.00 / 0)

If anyone wants the font I used, which is CNN's America Votes font, its called Headline One and its free at http://www.urbanfonts.com/font...

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by: Amherst Guy @ Sat Nov 22, 2008 at 16:33:53 PM CST

You've got Hall and Gillibrand living in the same district! (0.00 / 0)

Why in the world would you want that scenario? Hall lives in  Dutchess, Gillibrand in Columbia...you've got them both in your new 19th district. Meanwhile, even though Hinchey's likely not too far from retirement, you've left his district essentially intact - even though it's a poorly-conceived district to begin with.

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by: bkverve99 @ Sun Nov 23, 2008 at 00:08:37 AM CST