Darrel Aubertine is a very intriguing candidate. In fact, when I first found out about Aubertine, I went to his website's Meet Darrel page. The lines that stuck out to me were:
For over thirty years, Darrel Aubertine worked as a full-time dairy farmer. He woke up early, worked hard and made ends meet for his family.
More than a decade ago, he was asked by the local Republican town supervisor to run for town office. Darrel did so to be a voice for his family, his friends in agriculture and his community.
Two things: He's a farmer and when he was asked to run for office, it was by a Republican.
Aubertine's victory tonight is huge. It's historic because a Democrat has not held that seat in about 130 years - possibly longer. The importance of the victory to the New York State Senate and the Democratic Party is obvious: It brings us one seat away from having the majority in the Senate for the first time in over a century.
But calling this an upset would be, to me at least, not appreciating the great candidate Aubertine is and why he has garnered support in the North Country in the past and why he won on Tuesday night.
For some history, Aubertine actually lost back in 2000 in his bid for Assembly. Back then, it was the 114th Assembly District seat he was seeking. Then, he lost by about 3,000 votes.
In 2002, Darrel won the 118th Assembly District seat he currently holds. He won by 1,300 votes.
In 2004, Darrel won reelection by over 14,000 votes. The 118th Assembly District more Republicans than Democrats, but not by much. When 2006 came around, Darrel ran unopposed to victory.
Did Darrel face an enrollment disadvantage? Yes. But if you compare the SD-48 district map with the 118th Assembly District map, you'll notice that a healthy portion of Darrel's Assembly district makes up the 48th Senate District.
So when it comes to calling this an upset, I can't do so. Here's why:
(1) If it was truly an upset, why did polls show Aubertine with a slim lead just last week? Yes, the lead was slim but it was a lead nonetheless.
(2) Was there any moment in this campaign where Barclay really came off as the better candidate? I certainly can't think of one. Aubertine handled the issues a lot better. Barclay was on the attack all the time. While Aubertine was talking issues, Barclay was accusing him of supporting Gov. Spitzer's DMV policy change. So while Barclay and the Republicans were talking about dead issues, Aubertine was talking real, middle-class issues with the people of SD-48.
(3) If this was an upset, why did Aubertine win handily in St. Lawrence County and in Jefferson County? That amounts to getting 61 percent of the vote in St. Lawrence County and 64 percent in Jefferson County. Darrel had his base in this election and they came out and supported him in a huge way. That base includes Democrats, Republicans and several minor party members.
(4) I never doubted Aubertine. I thought he was going to win this race because of the kind of guy he is. I said on my radio show Tuesday night that Aubertine IS one of us. And that alone makes him a perfect choice to represent the middle class citizens of his district in Albany.
I'm not trying to downplay the win. It is a huge win and I'm ecstatic about the results. It's historic, important and really proves how a grassroots campaign can resonate with voters. But I don't see the upset qualities that you see with other races. Aubertine had a lot of factors working for him in this race. People are ready for change and that includes here in New York.
So let's celebrate the win because we had the better candidate and the candidate willing to talk the issues. Calling it an upset would downplay what really happened here: A true middle class politician was just elected to New York's upper house.
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